Carlos Gonzalez and WAR Consolidation

Question: What does Carlos Gonzalez’s contract mean for the Colorado Rockies, should he continue at his pace from 2010, given the presence of another elite player in Troy Tulowitzki?

Hypothesis: There is an additional value in having multiple “elite” players (5.0+ Wins Above Replacement), even at the expense of quality in other positions on the roster. For example, teams with more than one “elite” players would reach the postseason at a rate greater than the team’s cumulative WAR would indicate, or would perform better in the postseason.

Research:

The following data for all teams from 2002 to 2010 was compiled: total number of position players who accounted for 5.0+ WAR, total number of pitchers who accounted for 5.0+ WAR, whether or not the team reached the playoffs, the number of postseason series victories, the number of individual game victories in the regular season, the number of individual game victories in the postseason, WAR for all position players, WAR for all pitchers and total WAR (combining pitchers and position players). Regression analysis was performed on the above categories (see Charts 1-9 below).

Results and Discussion:

The results indicated a moderately strong association between any team’s number of 5.0+ WAR players and their ability to win games in the regular season, as the correlation coefficient was .54. While the association is moderately strong, it is likely that it could be accounted for by the strength of the association between composite team WAR and regular season victories, in which r= .87. Additionally, there was only a small correlation (r=.30) between the number of 5.0+ WAR pitchers a team had and the amount of games it was able to win. The r-value was slightly higher when it came to position players, at .44, indicating that there is slightly more value in having multiple 5.0+ WAR position players as opposed to pitchers, although it is possible that this could be accounted for by the fact that there were over twice as many position players than pitchers (243 to 107) who achieved 5.0+ WAR in the timeframe studied. There was a very small correlation (r=.06) between the number of 5.0+ WAR players a team had and the amount of games they won in the postseason. The correlation was similarly small when it came to the number of position players and pitchers separately (r=.05 and r=.03, respectively). This indicates that there is minimal evidence of a team’s consolidation of WAR into few players improving their chances for success in the postseason. To answer the initial question, the study demonstrates that even if Carlos Gonzalez maintains his level of play from 2010, the Colorado Rockies are not guaranteed to make the playoffs even given two potential 5.0+ WAR players. The success of the team over the length of his contract will be tied significantly to the ability of the team to build depth on the roster beyond Gonzalez and Tulowitzki.

Graphics available here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/47560605/WARConsolidation