"The Peril of Ease" and Sports Psychology

Yesterday, I came across a blog post written by Dan Devine on Yahoo. In it, he quotes former NBA coach Jeff Van Gundy in a discussion about how well talent translates to performance, in athletics, specifically with regard to basketball and Houston Rocket Tracy McGrady.

"Much of the game was so easy — you see this in the AAU level, where they have freakishly talented players," he continued. "When it's that easy to dominate at that young age because of your physical tools — his wingspan was freakish, his size was enormous, his IQ — my sense was, all that did get in the way of Tracy reaching his highest heights."

The basic principle makes some sense. If you're bigger, stronger, faster and more talented than the competition you're playing against, you're not forced to develop the finer points of your game, because when push comes to shove, you can just rely on your superior gifts to give you the edge you need. And when those gifts start to fade, if you haven't been developing new skills (or sharpening old ones) for a rainy day, you'll find yourself soaking wet in a storm that might just wash you away from the league.

This presents a pretty interesting question: Do the most talented athletes in any sport tend to rely on their talent at the expense of developing, as Devine calls them, the "finer points" of his game? This is an impossible question to answer with complete accuracy, as talent evaluation is largely a subjective discipline. Take Alex Rodriguez, for example. Out of high school, he was the 1st pick in the MLB draft. He was considered extremely talented as a hitter with the potential to play shortstop, a premium defensive position, at the Major League level. Now, I don't know any scouts who were actually tasked with evaluating him, either as an amateur or later as a professional, but many of the reports I read about him indicated that he was a tireless worker, focused on improving all aspects of his game. In fact, his desire to be great may have been so pronounced that it led him to take steroids to improve his game. This does not sound like the "peril of ease" referenced in Devine's post.

Maybe the "peril of ease" varies with each individual player. Maybe some players with elite talent put more pressure on themselves to perform at an elite level, while others try not to wear themselves out when they aren't in between the lines.

Of course, we can never really know for sure what is going on inside the heads of professional athletes, but speculation has always been part of the fun of studying sports.

Judging the process, not the result

In December 2009, much was made of the Yankees' decision to trade for Javier Vazquez, a pitcher coming off a fantastic season (2.77 FIP, 2.82 xFIP). Overall, the initial reaction to the trade was a mix of positive (those who are not afraid of math) and negative (those who believe in ghosts). On paper, at least, it seemed to be a very good deal for the Yankees. They swapped Mike Dunn for Boone Logan, which appeared a wash at the time, and received the added benefit of dumping the near-useless Melky Cabrera on the Braves. However, the crux of the trade came down to the final two pieces involved, Javier Vazquez and prospect Arodys Vizcaino. The Yankees thinking was obviously that Vazquez could be a reliable innings eater at the back end of the rotation, giving them depth behind CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte that they had lacked in 2009. To do so, they were willing to surrender one of their highly touted minor league pitchers in Vizcaino. However, what the Yankees did not know was that Vazquez was going to inexplicably lose 2 miles per hour off his fastball and be, outside of a strong two month period, largely ineffective for them. Had he pitched more like he did in 2009, the Yankees would probably have won the division and could have made more noise in the playoffs than they already did.

It is not inconceivable to believe that had Vazquez's velocity and production stayed consistent, he may have helped the Yankees win the ALCS, when CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte were their only effective starting pitchers. Furthermore, he may have earned Type A status on the free agent market, granting the Yankees two high draft picks. However, because of the reality of the situation and the end result, the Yankees are left without a top pitching prospect in Vizcaino, and with just one, late first round pick.

This is part of the reason that it is so difficult to evaluate general managers and decisions in baseball. The process is the only thing under control. The result, however, can come out of left field. And unfortunately, particularly in big markets, results receive a lot more attention than processes.