Carlos Gonzalez and WAR Consolidation

Question: What does Carlos Gonzalez’s contract mean for the Colorado Rockies, should he continue at his pace from 2010, given the presence of another elite player in Troy Tulowitzki?

Hypothesis: There is an additional value in having multiple “elite” players (5.0+ Wins Above Replacement), even at the expense of quality in other positions on the roster. For example, teams with more than one “elite” players would reach the postseason at a rate greater than the team’s cumulative WAR would indicate, or would perform better in the postseason.

Research:

The following data for all teams from 2002 to 2010 was compiled: total number of position players who accounted for 5.0+ WAR, total number of pitchers who accounted for 5.0+ WAR, whether or not the team reached the playoffs, the number of postseason series victories, the number of individual game victories in the regular season, the number of individual game victories in the postseason, WAR for all position players, WAR for all pitchers and total WAR (combining pitchers and position players). Regression analysis was performed on the above categories (see Charts 1-9 below).

Results and Discussion:

The results indicated a moderately strong association between any team’s number of 5.0+ WAR players and their ability to win games in the regular season, as the correlation coefficient was .54. While the association is moderately strong, it is likely that it could be accounted for by the strength of the association between composite team WAR and regular season victories, in which r= .87. Additionally, there was only a small correlation (r=.30) between the number of 5.0+ WAR pitchers a team had and the amount of games it was able to win. The r-value was slightly higher when it came to position players, at .44, indicating that there is slightly more value in having multiple 5.0+ WAR position players as opposed to pitchers, although it is possible that this could be accounted for by the fact that there were over twice as many position players than pitchers (243 to 107) who achieved 5.0+ WAR in the timeframe studied. There was a very small correlation (r=.06) between the number of 5.0+ WAR players a team had and the amount of games they won in the postseason. The correlation was similarly small when it came to the number of position players and pitchers separately (r=.05 and r=.03, respectively). This indicates that there is minimal evidence of a team’s consolidation of WAR into few players improving their chances for success in the postseason. To answer the initial question, the study demonstrates that even if Carlos Gonzalez maintains his level of play from 2010, the Colorado Rockies are not guaranteed to make the playoffs even given two potential 5.0+ WAR players. The success of the team over the length of his contract will be tied significantly to the ability of the team to build depth on the roster beyond Gonzalez and Tulowitzki.

Graphics available here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/47560605/WARConsolidation

2011 Second Base Rankings

Second base is pretty similar to catcher, as it features a pretty talented set of players early, but ultimately the depth is probably even worse. Grabbing one of the top 8 players is ideal, but if they are gone early, it might be best to wait and grab a potential reclamation project like Jose Lopez (welcome to Coors Field), or Chone Figgins. Aaron Hill is another intriguing option, especially if he is available late, due to his power potential.

Name	Tom	Alex	Overall
Robinson Cano	2	1	1
Dan Uggla	1	3	2
Chase Utley	3	2	3
Rickie Weeks	4	4	4
Dustin Pedroia	5	5	5
Ian Kinsler	6	6	6
Brandon Phillips	7	7	7
Brian Roberts	8	9	8
Martin Prado	9	12	9
Aaron Hill	13	8	10
Kelly Johnson	11	10	11
Ben Zobrist	12	11	12
Chone Figgins	10	15	13
Howie Kendrick	14	14	14
Gordon Beckham	16	13	15
Jose Lopez	17	16	16
Orlando Hudson	15	21	17
Reid Brignac	21	17	18
Neil Walker	19	19	19
Jeff Keppinger	18	22	20
Clint Barmes	22	18	21
Ryan Theriot	20	23	22
Jayson Nix	23	20	23

Was Cliff Lee REALLY "being Cliff Lee"?

The marquee free agent pitcher of this offseason was clearly the left handed starter Cliff Lee. Many believed that he would lead Texas to a World Series Championship, but he fell a little short in this endeavor. If Cliff Lee is the competitor that everyone says he is, then Lee is probably disappointed with his World Series performance. Remember his Game 1 numbers?4.2 IP, 8 hits, 7 R (6 ER) in a loss. Game 2 was better, but still not the masterful performance that viewers had been accustomed to: 7 IP, 6 Hits, including a bomb of a homerun, 3 R, all earned. So my question, why did Cliff Lee leave a World Series contender if Cliff Lee was "being Cliff Lee" (Gammons, "Lee's Decision All About Cliff Being Cliff")?

When free agency hit, there were two teams that were willing to offer Cliff Lee the big money contract. These two options were Nolan Ryan and the Texas Rangers and Brian Cashman and the New York Yankees. The Rangers needed the frontline starter and professionalism Cliff Lee brought to the dugout. The Yankees wanted another top starter in case lefty Andy Petitte retired. It seemed to be a two team race. After countless blogs were posted and potential contracts were reported, Cliff Lee did what many did not see coming: he went to Philadelphia to be a #2 starter behind ace Roy Halladay who earlier in the postseason threw a No-Hitter! Yet again I ask, Why!?

I read Peter Gammons' article "Lee's Decision All About Cliff Being Cliff" and I was astonished. According to the article, "He wants to throw strikes, pitch for a winning team, be around players with whom he relates and catch the biggest bass." Well, he was doing all of those in Texas, was he not? The idea that Cliff was doing what he wants is noble in theory, but practically, GIVE ME A BREAK! The Phillies were the same team that traded away Cliff to acquire Roy Halladay. The front office clearly valued the Ace legitimacy of Doc over Cliff Lee. Now, I can't speak for Lee, but if I were considered one of the top pitchers in the game, and was traded for someone else, I would be a little pissed, especially if I had led the team's rotation into the World Series single-handedly. Naturally, the counter argument for this is that baseball is a business and it is a business decision. Granted. But to remove your emotions completely from the trade is impossible. Players are human beings, not business organizations. I am not saying that what the Phillies did was to upset Cliff Lee in any way, shape, or form, but that in any deal where a player is going to a different franchise, it is an adjustment that one must psychologically and emotionally make. So if the requirements from the article are true, Philadelphia would be the last place Lee should have gone. He had been a part of a great roster in Texas that was close to his hometown. They nearly won the World Series, and I think Cliff Lee, (again) if he is the competitor that everyone keeps writing he is, would want another crack it at in Texas. Based on the wants he listed in the article, Texas is a frontrunner. In New York City, his good pitching friend CC Sabathia was welcoming him with open arms. The Yankees have been a shoe-in every year to make the playoffs, and the fans felt almost entitled to Lee with the money and perks of city life. Yes, New York is away from home, but it is a city like no other. Philly was a franchise that traded him away and lost in the championship series of the playoffs. I am not a geography guy by any means, but Philadelphia is much farther away from Arkansas then Texas. This is also a team whose offense is getting plain bad: the loss of Jayson Werth, the decline of Ryan Howard's ability to hit a baseball, Jimmy Rollins ability to get on base to name a few. I would suspect that of all the teams Lee was choosing from, Philadelphia would be at BEST a third choice.

The decision itself was a shocking one. He passed up money from both the Yankees and Rangers to be a part of what looks like an absolutely scary rotation. People admire the fact that players are turning down money to be a part of winning teams. It is a Lebron James move. But, let's be honest Mr. Lee. A real competitor wants to beat the best opponents out there, and guess what, hiding behind Roy Halladay in Philly is a great way to be a competitor, isn't it? A true competitor would want to go head to head with the other baseball elites. If you did stay in Texas, you could compete with your great pitching friend CC, you could have a potential World Series matchup in Games 1, 4, and 7 against Doc, becoming a legend in baseball history. But unfortunately, like your ability to deceive batters, you are deceiving yourself as a #2 starter in Philly. For shame Cliff, for shame.

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Alex & Tom

Why Relievers Are Not Worth The Risk

There are a lot of baseball fans and pundits alike who are curious as to why the number one relief pitcher on the free agent market, Rafael Soriano, has not yet found a new team for next season. Optimistically, I’d like to believe it is because teams have learned that long contracts for relievers are bad investments that rarely work out as intended, complicated by the fact that the relievers seeking such deals often require draft pick compensation, as Soriano does.

While a number of teams have proven my optimism misguided by doling out two and three year deals like candy (Benoit, Downs, Feliciano, Crain, Putz, etc.), teams have yet to seriously bite on the big fish in Soriano. Whether that is because they draw the line at four or five years but not three, or because they have reservations about the amount of money he is likely to cost, it is the right decision to avoid him. Why? Simply put, it’s because relievers are generally unpredictable and of limited value at best.

Their unpredictability is clear; in a study of the 26 relievers who pitched at least 50 innings every season from 2007-10, their WAR dropped, on average, 36.25% from season to season. In the same timeframe, position players (min.500 PA) saw their WAR increase by about 15% on average, and starting pitchers (min.160 IP) saw it increase by 7.98%.

Now to look at the actual value of the relievers just furthers the point. The 70^th highest WAR from a position player in 2010 was from Hunter Pence, who posted a 3.1 WAR. The 47^th highest WAR from a starting pitcher was by Dallas Braden, who put up a solid 3.0 WAR. The highest WAR from a reliever was from Carlos Marmol, and he pitched to a 3.1 WAR. The reason that relievers aren’t valuable like other pitchers has nothing to do with how talented they are. Many relievers have top notched stuff, control, or both (see Rivera, Mariano). The problem with relievers is that they do not pitch often enough to be really valuable. A top starter will pitch in excess of 200 innings in a single season, and a top reliever might pitch 80 or 90 innings. On a smaller scale, it’s like comparing a regular pinch hitter to a starting position player. The value is limited because of the lack of opportunity, and the smaller sample size leads to greater variability in performance.

In order for a reliever to be really worth the money, years and draft picks they sometimes require, he would need to be able to sustain effectiveness while frequently pitching two or even three innings at a time for a full season. Since the structure of bullpens today dictates that the best pitcher acts as the closer, only pitching the 9^th inning and rarely more than one inning at a time anyway, the notion of a star reliever being worth close to as much as a star position player or starter is somewhat of a pipe dream.

2011 First Base Rankings

2011 is no exception to the rule when it comes to first basemen: quality players are extremely plentiful. There is a tremendous amount of 5x5 production to be had here, with three reigning MVP candidates (Pujols, Votto, Cabrera) fronting the list. Throw in some established studs in new, hitter friendly parks (Dunn and Gonzalez), along with a bevy of other standout performers. All told, landing a top 12 first baseman probably guarantees at least average production for the position, with the potential for even more. Keep an eye on guys like Kevin Youkilis and Justin Morneau, who could fall due to injury concerns, but are still elite hitters playing in good lineups and could give you great middle round value.

Name	Tom	Alex	Overall
Albert Pujols	1	1	1
Joey Votto	2	3	2
Miguel Cabrera	3	2	2
Prince Fielder	5	5	4
Adrian Gonzalez	6	4	5
Adam Dunn	4	7	6
Mark Teixeira	7	6	7
Ryan Howard	8	8	8
Paul Konerko	9	11	9
Justin Morneau	10	10	10
Kevin Youkilis	11	12	11
Kendry Morales	13	9	11
Carlos Pena	12	14	13
Aubrey Huff	17	13	14
Buster Posey	14	17	15
Derrek Lee	18	15	16
Adam Laroche	16	18	17
Mike Napoli	15	21	18
Victor Martinez	21	16	19
Michael Cuddyer	19	20	20
Billy Butler	22	19	21
Lance Berkman	20	22	22

Four January Free Agent Signings that Should Happen

1) Adrian Beltre to the Angels

Amassing a grand total of -1.0 WAR, the Angels’ third basemen in 2010 were a step above useless, contributing even less than a replacement level player would. They can fix that by signing the best available free agent third baseman in Adrian Beltre, a defensive stalwart coming off a very impressive season that saw him post a .321/.365/.553 batting line, and 7.1 WAR. As a Scott Boras advisee, he won’t be cheap, and there is some concern that his offense was more Fenway Park-aided than legitimate, but the potential upgrade is too much for the Angels to pass on. As an added bonus, it also keeps him away from Oakland and Texas, two of the Angels’ division rivals rumored to be pursuing him.

2) Rafael Soriano to the Angels

In a winter when the market for free agent relievers has gotten out of control (see Benoit, Joaquin and Downs, Scott), the number one reliever on the market, Rafael Soriano, is still unsigned. His former team, the Rays, lacks the financial resources to bring him back, and none of the high payroll Eastern juggernauts need a closer. This leaves the Angels as the one logical solution, and it is a perfect fit on both ends. The Angels, who saw their bullpen post an awful 1.58 K/BB ratio and 4.51 xFIP in 2010, badly need bullpen help, and while relievers are usually a poor investment (for the purposes of this post, we are assuming that SOMEONE is going to sign Soriano and therefore the usual advice against signing such a pitcher is being temporarily ignored), Soriano is a quality reliever and could make a difference in such a tight division. Soriano, meanwhile, can get the kind of money he desires and still have the opportunity to close in SoCal.

3) Jim Thome to the Rays

The Rays’ free agent exodus of 2010/’11 is in full swing, with the club having lost Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena already and possessing a number of other free agents (including Rafael Soriano) likely to change addresses in 2011. However, with a quality starting rotation and creative front office, the Rays are down, but not out in a very tough division that becomes tougher each day. Replacing the production of Pena and Crawford will be difficult, but one place to start would be improving on the DH spot. In 2010, the Rays’ DHs had the lowest OPS against RHP of any team. Enter Jim Thome, the aging slugger who blasted right-handers in 2010 to the tune of a 1.154 (!) OPS. Thome, 40, is only likely to seek a one year deal, and doing so could bring him into a price range that’s feasible for the Rays.

4) Carl Pavano to the Rangers

The Rangers are still reeling from the loss of Cliff Lee and could use a boost in their rotation to help them compete in the increasingly even-matched AL West. Carl Pavano is still jobless. This makes sense. The Rangers rotation is talented but does lack depth after C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis, neither of whom are particularly established. Pavano is not an elite pitcher by any stretch, but has been an above average innings eater during the past two seasons. Further, his groundball tendencies (51.2% in 2010, 46% career) should be helpful in a launching pad such as Ameriquest Field. Barring a move to the rotation for Neftali Feliz, the Rangers are unlikely to have a true ace in 2011, but adding Pavano would give them three solid arms to front the rotation, and contributions from one of the game’s top farm systems can certainly fill in some of the gaps and help them repeat as AL West Champions.