Is the Albert Pujols Sweepstakes going to affect Michael Young?

Upon formally hearing of Michael Young’s trade request today, I took a look at the FanGraphs WAR team leaderboard for second basemen in 2010. Unsurprisingly, I saw Young’s most frequently rumored suitor, the Colorado Rockies, ranked near the bottom, along with a slew of teams not expected to contend in 2011 (the Pirates, Mets, Indians, and Mariners, to name a few). However, I did notice a pair of interesting teams who are certainly looking to contend next season, and could clearly use a significant upgrade at second base: The Cardinals (-0.1 WAR) and the Cubs (1.2). Now neither of these teams has been linked to Young as far as the rumor mill goes, and there are a number of potential reasons for this. They could be on Young’s no-trade list (which covers 22 teams), the Rangers could be asking an exorbitant amount in return, or the teams could simply be tapped out financially for the season. I do wonder, though, if both the Cardinals and the Cubs are staying out of the chase for Young because neither team knows for certain how the Albert Pujols negotiations will go (although the Cardinals have a better idea, one would assume), and may need every extra dime to make a lucrative offer to him this winter. An offer that likely would not mesh particularly well with the $48 million Young is owed over the next three seasons.

Obviously, there is no guarantee that either would have pursued Young regardless of Pujols (or that they still won’t, for that matter), or that the Rangers aren’t willing to eat a significant amount of Young’s salary in order to move him, making the point moot. But it will be interesting to see if the Cubs and Cardinals do not make a move to upgrade the position, and are involved in a tight race for the playoffs late in September, probably with last season’s NL Central Champion Cincinnati Reds. It does seem odd to say, but trading for a slightly above average regular second baseman might be the biggest win-now move either team could make, albeit with potentially extreme consequences beyond this season.

Fantasy Shortstop Rankings

The position of shortstop in fantasy baseball is a lot like the kicker in fantasy football. There are a few who will genuinely help you, but in comprising the list, I was pretty horrified at the lack of available talent. If you do not have one within the first few rounds, you should hope for someone to slip for some reason (like Jose Reyes) or just grab a filler late. If you can grab even a one category filler, like an Andrus or potentially Alcides Escobar late, that has to be considered a moderate success for the position.

Name	Tom	Alex	Overall
Troy Tulowitzki	1	1	1
Hanley Ramirez	2	2	2
Derek Jeter	4	5	3
Jose Reyes	9	3	4
Alexei Ramirez	6	6	5
Jimmy Rollins	5	8	6
Stephen Drew	7	7	7
Juan Uribe	3	15	8
Elvis Andrus	16	4	9
Rafael Furcal	10	11	10
Alex Gonzalez	11	12	11
Ian Desmond	17	10	12
Starlin Castro	19	9	13
Miguel Tejada	8	21	14
Jason Bartlett	12	14	15
Yunel Escobar	15	16	16
Marco Scutaro	13	22	17
Alcides Escobar	23	13	18
Jhonny Peralta	14	23	19
Omar Infante	18	17	20
Mike Aviles	20	18	21
Cliff Pennington	21	19	22
Asdrubal Cabrera	22	20	23

Carlos Gonzalez and WAR Consolidation

Question: What does Carlos Gonzalez’s contract mean for the Colorado Rockies, should he continue at his pace from 2010, given the presence of another elite player in Troy Tulowitzki?

Hypothesis: There is an additional value in having multiple “elite” players (5.0+ Wins Above Replacement), even at the expense of quality in other positions on the roster. For example, teams with more than one “elite” players would reach the postseason at a rate greater than the team’s cumulative WAR would indicate, or would perform better in the postseason.

Research:

The following data for all teams from 2002 to 2010 was compiled: total number of position players who accounted for 5.0+ WAR, total number of pitchers who accounted for 5.0+ WAR, whether or not the team reached the playoffs, the number of postseason series victories, the number of individual game victories in the regular season, the number of individual game victories in the postseason, WAR for all position players, WAR for all pitchers and total WAR (combining pitchers and position players). Regression analysis was performed on the above categories (see Charts 1-9 below).

Results and Discussion:

The results indicated a moderately strong association between any team’s number of 5.0+ WAR players and their ability to win games in the regular season, as the correlation coefficient was .54. While the association is moderately strong, it is likely that it could be accounted for by the strength of the association between composite team WAR and regular season victories, in which r= .87. Additionally, there was only a small correlation (r=.30) between the number of 5.0+ WAR pitchers a team had and the amount of games it was able to win. The r-value was slightly higher when it came to position players, at .44, indicating that there is slightly more value in having multiple 5.0+ WAR position players as opposed to pitchers, although it is possible that this could be accounted for by the fact that there were over twice as many position players than pitchers (243 to 107) who achieved 5.0+ WAR in the timeframe studied. There was a very small correlation (r=.06) between the number of 5.0+ WAR players a team had and the amount of games they won in the postseason. The correlation was similarly small when it came to the number of position players and pitchers separately (r=.05 and r=.03, respectively). This indicates that there is minimal evidence of a team’s consolidation of WAR into few players improving their chances for success in the postseason. To answer the initial question, the study demonstrates that even if Carlos Gonzalez maintains his level of play from 2010, the Colorado Rockies are not guaranteed to make the playoffs even given two potential 5.0+ WAR players. The success of the team over the length of his contract will be tied significantly to the ability of the team to build depth on the roster beyond Gonzalez and Tulowitzki.

Graphics available here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/47560605/WARConsolidation

2011 Second Base Rankings

Second base is pretty similar to catcher, as it features a pretty talented set of players early, but ultimately the depth is probably even worse. Grabbing one of the top 8 players is ideal, but if they are gone early, it might be best to wait and grab a potential reclamation project like Jose Lopez (welcome to Coors Field), or Chone Figgins. Aaron Hill is another intriguing option, especially if he is available late, due to his power potential.

Name	Tom	Alex	Overall
Robinson Cano	2	1	1
Dan Uggla	1	3	2
Chase Utley	3	2	3
Rickie Weeks	4	4	4
Dustin Pedroia	5	5	5
Ian Kinsler	6	6	6
Brandon Phillips	7	7	7
Brian Roberts	8	9	8
Martin Prado	9	12	9
Aaron Hill	13	8	10
Kelly Johnson	11	10	11
Ben Zobrist	12	11	12
Chone Figgins	10	15	13
Howie Kendrick	14	14	14
Gordon Beckham	16	13	15
Jose Lopez	17	16	16
Orlando Hudson	15	21	17
Reid Brignac	21	17	18
Neil Walker	19	19	19
Jeff Keppinger	18	22	20
Clint Barmes	22	18	21
Ryan Theriot	20	23	22
Jayson Nix	23	20	23