"The Peril of Ease" and Sports Psychology

Yesterday, I came across a blog post written by Dan Devine on Yahoo. In it, he quotes former NBA coach Jeff Van Gundy in a discussion about how well talent translates to performance, in athletics, specifically with regard to basketball and Houston Rocket Tracy McGrady.

"Much of the game was so easy — you see this in the AAU level, where they have freakishly talented players," he continued. "When it's that easy to dominate at that young age because of your physical tools — his wingspan was freakish, his size was enormous, his IQ — my sense was, all that did get in the way of Tracy reaching his highest heights."

The basic principle makes some sense. If you're bigger, stronger, faster and more talented than the competition you're playing against, you're not forced to develop the finer points of your game, because when push comes to shove, you can just rely on your superior gifts to give you the edge you need. And when those gifts start to fade, if you haven't been developing new skills (or sharpening old ones) for a rainy day, you'll find yourself soaking wet in a storm that might just wash you away from the league.

This presents a pretty interesting question: Do the most talented athletes in any sport tend to rely on their talent at the expense of developing, as Devine calls them, the "finer points" of his game? This is an impossible question to answer with complete accuracy, as talent evaluation is largely a subjective discipline. Take Alex Rodriguez, for example. Out of high school, he was the 1st pick in the MLB draft. He was considered extremely talented as a hitter with the potential to play shortstop, a premium defensive position, at the Major League level. Now, I don't know any scouts who were actually tasked with evaluating him, either as an amateur or later as a professional, but many of the reports I read about him indicated that he was a tireless worker, focused on improving all aspects of his game. In fact, his desire to be great may have been so pronounced that it led him to take steroids to improve his game. This does not sound like the "peril of ease" referenced in Devine's post.

Maybe the "peril of ease" varies with each individual player. Maybe some players with elite talent put more pressure on themselves to perform at an elite level, while others try not to wear themselves out when they aren't in between the lines.

Of course, we can never really know for sure what is going on inside the heads of professional athletes, but speculation has always been part of the fun of studying sports.

Carlos Gonzalez and WAR Consolidation

Question: What does Carlos Gonzalez’s contract mean for the Colorado Rockies, should he continue at his pace from 2010, given the presence of another elite player in Troy Tulowitzki?

Hypothesis: There is an additional value in having multiple “elite” players (5.0+ Wins Above Replacement), even at the expense of quality in other positions on the roster. For example, teams with more than one “elite” players would reach the postseason at a rate greater than the team’s cumulative WAR would indicate, or would perform better in the postseason.

Research:

The following data for all teams from 2002 to 2010 was compiled: total number of position players who accounted for 5.0+ WAR, total number of pitchers who accounted for 5.0+ WAR, whether or not the team reached the playoffs, the number of postseason series victories, the number of individual game victories in the regular season, the number of individual game victories in the postseason, WAR for all position players, WAR for all pitchers and total WAR (combining pitchers and position players). Regression analysis was performed on the above categories (see Charts 1-9 below).

Results and Discussion:

The results indicated a moderately strong association between any team’s number of 5.0+ WAR players and their ability to win games in the regular season, as the correlation coefficient was .54. While the association is moderately strong, it is likely that it could be accounted for by the strength of the association between composite team WAR and regular season victories, in which r= .87. Additionally, there was only a small correlation (r=.30) between the number of 5.0+ WAR pitchers a team had and the amount of games it was able to win. The r-value was slightly higher when it came to position players, at .44, indicating that there is slightly more value in having multiple 5.0+ WAR position players as opposed to pitchers, although it is possible that this could be accounted for by the fact that there were over twice as many position players than pitchers (243 to 107) who achieved 5.0+ WAR in the timeframe studied. There was a very small correlation (r=.06) between the number of 5.0+ WAR players a team had and the amount of games they won in the postseason. The correlation was similarly small when it came to the number of position players and pitchers separately (r=.05 and r=.03, respectively). This indicates that there is minimal evidence of a team’s consolidation of WAR into few players improving their chances for success in the postseason. To answer the initial question, the study demonstrates that even if Carlos Gonzalez maintains his level of play from 2010, the Colorado Rockies are not guaranteed to make the playoffs even given two potential 5.0+ WAR players. The success of the team over the length of his contract will be tied significantly to the ability of the team to build depth on the roster beyond Gonzalez and Tulowitzki.

Graphics available here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/47560605/WARConsolidation

Four January Free Agent Signings that Should Happen

1) Adrian Beltre to the Angels

Amassing a grand total of -1.0 WAR, the Angels’ third basemen in 2010 were a step above useless, contributing even less than a replacement level player would. They can fix that by signing the best available free agent third baseman in Adrian Beltre, a defensive stalwart coming off a very impressive season that saw him post a .321/.365/.553 batting line, and 7.1 WAR. As a Scott Boras advisee, he won’t be cheap, and there is some concern that his offense was more Fenway Park-aided than legitimate, but the potential upgrade is too much for the Angels to pass on. As an added bonus, it also keeps him away from Oakland and Texas, two of the Angels’ division rivals rumored to be pursuing him.

2) Rafael Soriano to the Angels

In a winter when the market for free agent relievers has gotten out of control (see Benoit, Joaquin and Downs, Scott), the number one reliever on the market, Rafael Soriano, is still unsigned. His former team, the Rays, lacks the financial resources to bring him back, and none of the high payroll Eastern juggernauts need a closer. This leaves the Angels as the one logical solution, and it is a perfect fit on both ends. The Angels, who saw their bullpen post an awful 1.58 K/BB ratio and 4.51 xFIP in 2010, badly need bullpen help, and while relievers are usually a poor investment (for the purposes of this post, we are assuming that SOMEONE is going to sign Soriano and therefore the usual advice against signing such a pitcher is being temporarily ignored), Soriano is a quality reliever and could make a difference in such a tight division. Soriano, meanwhile, can get the kind of money he desires and still have the opportunity to close in SoCal.

3) Jim Thome to the Rays

The Rays’ free agent exodus of 2010/’11 is in full swing, with the club having lost Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena already and possessing a number of other free agents (including Rafael Soriano) likely to change addresses in 2011. However, with a quality starting rotation and creative front office, the Rays are down, but not out in a very tough division that becomes tougher each day. Replacing the production of Pena and Crawford will be difficult, but one place to start would be improving on the DH spot. In 2010, the Rays’ DHs had the lowest OPS against RHP of any team. Enter Jim Thome, the aging slugger who blasted right-handers in 2010 to the tune of a 1.154 (!) OPS. Thome, 40, is only likely to seek a one year deal, and doing so could bring him into a price range that’s feasible for the Rays.

4) Carl Pavano to the Rangers

The Rangers are still reeling from the loss of Cliff Lee and could use a boost in their rotation to help them compete in the increasingly even-matched AL West. Carl Pavano is still jobless. This makes sense. The Rangers rotation is talented but does lack depth after C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis, neither of whom are particularly established. Pavano is not an elite pitcher by any stretch, but has been an above average innings eater during the past two seasons. Further, his groundball tendencies (51.2% in 2010, 46% career) should be helpful in a launching pad such as Ameriquest Field. Barring a move to the rotation for Neftali Feliz, the Rangers are unlikely to have a true ace in 2011, but adding Pavano would give them three solid arms to front the rotation, and contributions from one of the game’s top farm systems can certainly fill in some of the gaps and help them repeat as AL West Champions.

Jesus Montero and the Yankees' DH Quandary

Jesus Montero is not only the best prospect the Yankees have had in recent years, but also one of the most interesting in all of baseball.

Montero is a true catcher in name only, but has an elite level bat, offering the potential for a Mike Piazza-like career. Here is where Montero’s case starts to become very interesting. Unlike Piazza, who spent his entire career in the National League, Montero is currently with the Yankees, who, conveniently, employ the use of the DH, giving Montero an additional landing spot if his defense is as bad as many scouts suggest. However, using the DH spot as a place to store Montero damages his value, as it is much easier to find a DH than it is a catcher. Furthermore, the Yankees’ 2011 roster will include three position players over 35, and the 2012 roster will include at least two, both of whom (Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter) have dealt with nagging injuries and a decline in defensive performance in recent seasons, so leaving the DH spot open for their frequent usage as they continue to age will probably be a consideration. So, essentially, the Yankees’ option for him is to keep him behind the plate, at least for now, while he is young. Given that the only catchers the Yankees have under their control beyond this season are Russell Martin and Francisco Cervelli, one of whom has talent but injury woes and inconsistent past performance, and the other who simply isn’t good, there is definitely room for Montero there. The question is whether or not he will be tolerable defensively, and if he isn’t, then his future with New York becomes very doubtful moving forward. The team cannot move him to first base, where Mark Teixeira resides, and given his struggles as a catcher, it would probably take considerable effort for him to learn another corner position, which may not even ultimately be a successful transition.

The Yankees know he has an elite bat. They know they will need young hitters to supplement Robinson Cano as guys like Rodriguez and Jeter move closer to retirement and Nick Swisher and Teixeira exit their respective primes. One solution would be to trade him now; take advantage of his value by dangling him to add a frontline starting pitcher, but the problem lies in the fact that those guys simply are not available. Not now, anyway. It would probably be in the best interest of the Mariners from a purely baseball perspective to consider moving Felix Hernandez, but it doesn’t appear they will. The Dodgers seem unlikely to move Clayton Kershaw as well, and along with Hernandez, those are the type of young, elite pitchers the Yankees would need to acquire in order to justify trading Montero. Since those pitchers are unavailable, the Yankees only real option appears to be holding onto Montero for now, hoping he improves defensively and can take over as the team’s starting catcher at some point in 2011. If he doesn’t, his trade value will take a hit, along with his actual value to the team.

As a DH, Montero’s value is limited by the lack of defensive value, as well as the abundance of options to fill that spot, and as a catcher, it’s limited by his lack of defensive prowess. His trade value is limited by the above, as well as the lack of available options for trade. Essentially, Montero is one of the least valuable top prospects in baseball, at least until his defense can improve, if it ever does.

2011 Catcher Rankings

This is the deepest the catcher spot has been at any time in recent years, with potential for elite production from as many as 6 players, given the emergence of Buster Posey and Carlos Santana in 2010. If Jorge Posada can stay healthy as a full time DH, the top 7 on this list will all be extremely valuable as starters in all leagues in 2011. Once you get past those guys, if you are willing to sacrifice some certainty for potential, your best bet is probably Matt Wieters, and as far as late round fliers go, Russell Martin could pick up a bunch of R/RBI/SB from the bottom of a stacked Yankees lineup.

Name	Tom	Alex	Overall
Joe Mauer	1	1	1
Buster Posey	2	3	2
Victor Martinez	5	2	3
Brian McCann	4	4	4
Mike Napoli	3	6	5
Carlos Santana	6	5	6
Jorge Posada	7	7	7
Kurt Suzuki	9	8	8
Miguel Olivo	8	12	9
Matt Wieters	10	10	10
Geovany Soto	12	9	11
A. J. Pierzynski	11	14	12
John Buck	14	11	13
Rod Barajas	15	16	14
John Jaso	13	20	15
Carlos Ruiz	20	13	16
Miguel Montero	16	19	17
Ramon Hernandez	21	15	18
Yadier Molina	19	17	19
Russell Martin	17	21	20
Chris Iannetta	18	22	21
Ryan Doumit	22	18	22