Judging the process, not the result

In December 2009, much was made of the Yankees' decision to trade for Javier Vazquez, a pitcher coming off a fantastic season (2.77 FIP, 2.82 xFIP). Overall, the initial reaction to the trade was a mix of positive (those who are not afraid of math) and negative (those who believe in ghosts). On paper, at least, it seemed to be a very good deal for the Yankees. They swapped Mike Dunn for Boone Logan, which appeared a wash at the time, and received the added benefit of dumping the near-useless Melky Cabrera on the Braves. However, the crux of the trade came down to the final two pieces involved, Javier Vazquez and prospect Arodys Vizcaino. The Yankees thinking was obviously that Vazquez could be a reliable innings eater at the back end of the rotation, giving them depth behind CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte that they had lacked in 2009. To do so, they were willing to surrender one of their highly touted minor league pitchers in Vizcaino. However, what the Yankees did not know was that Vazquez was going to inexplicably lose 2 miles per hour off his fastball and be, outside of a strong two month period, largely ineffective for them. Had he pitched more like he did in 2009, the Yankees would probably have won the division and could have made more noise in the playoffs than they already did.

It is not inconceivable to believe that had Vazquez's velocity and production stayed consistent, he may have helped the Yankees win the ALCS, when CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte were their only effective starting pitchers. Furthermore, he may have earned Type A status on the free agent market, granting the Yankees two high draft picks. However, because of the reality of the situation and the end result, the Yankees are left without a top pitching prospect in Vizcaino, and with just one, late first round pick.

This is part of the reason that it is so difficult to evaluate general managers and decisions in baseball. The process is the only thing under control. The result, however, can come out of left field. And unfortunately, particularly in big markets, results receive a lot more attention than processes.