Why CC Sabathia's Opt-Out Clause Shouldn't Scare the Yankees

The latest piece of news from New York to make headlines is CC Sabathia's first public acknowledgment that he may, in fact, exercise the opt-out clause in his contract after the 2011 season. Sabathia is an elite pitcher, there is no question about that. He has amassed a 19.1 WAR over the past 3 seasons, good for the 5th best total in baseball among pitchers. He possesses a tremendous amount of value, and assuming he stays healthy and does in fact opt out, will undoubtedly be the best free agent hurler available. The opt-out clause will allow him to hit the free agent market at 31 years old, coincidentally (and conveniently) the same age as Cliff Lee when he signed his deal with the Phillies as a free agent last offseason.

Given the fact that Lee received more than one 6-year offer, it is understandable that CC may opt out in an attempt to gain an extra few years on his deal, with a greater annual salary as well. However, considering the fact that CC's deal will already pay him $92 million from 2012-2015, it seems unlikely that a suitor will step up and offer considerably more than that. The only obvious fit for Sabathia (besides the Yankees) would be the Texas Rangers, who allegedly offered Lee six years and $138 million.

To clarify, I do not believe for a minute that the Yankees would let Sabathia go if they could just extend his contract two seasons at the same AAV in order to keep him. But would they be wise to bring him back at that point? It would effectively turn the 7 year, $161 million deal they signed him to prior to the 2009 season into a 9 year, $207 million deal. Sabathia opting out would give the Yankees the chance to pass on the final (and most risky) years of an inherently risky deal, enabling them to fill in the gaps where they see fit without committing nearly $100 million to an over-34 pitcher with a body type that is relatively unstudied (for lack of sample) in baseball. If the Yankees' young pitching (Hughes, Nova, Banuelos, Brackman, Betances) takes a major step forward in 2011 (which is unlikely, granted, for all of those pitchers to make significant progress in one season), letting Sabathia walk may be the right decision.

Since Brian Cashman has assumed "full" (Rafael Soriano-excluded) control of baseball operations, the Yankees have introduced a new focus on the draft, and have some of the best minor league pitching depth in baseball. Maybe they don't have another CC Sabathia among them, or maybe they do, or just maybe, they have enough guys who will develop into solid major league pitchers that this loss will be survivable. Maybe someone among them may benefit from the opportunity presented by the loss of Sabathia, and will provide significant production at a bargain basement price. There are a lot of ifs involved in this, obviously, but I certainly do not believe Sabathia walking away is a death sentence for the Yankees. Rather, it may be a blessing in disguise.